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Are Financial Crashes Predictable?

arXiv:cond-mat/9804111 · doi:10.1209/epl/i1999-00122-9

Abstract

We critically review recent claims that financial crashes can be predicted using the idea of log-periodic oscillations or by other methods inspired by the physics of critical phenomena. In particular, the October 1997 `correction' does not appear to be the accumulation point of a geometric series of local minima.

LaTeX, 5 pages + 1 postscript figure