Neural Learning of Online Consumer Credit Risk

Abstract

This paper takes a deep learning approach to understand consumer credit risk when e-commerce platforms issue unsecured credit to finance customers' purchase. The "NeuCredit" model can capture both serial dependences in multi-dimensional time series data when event frequencies in each dimension differ. It also captures nonlinear cross-sectional interactions among different time-evolving features. Also, the predicted default probability is designed to be interpretable such that risks can be decomposed into three components: the subjective risk indicating the consumers' willingness to repay, the objective risk indicating their ability to repay, and the behavioral risk indicating consumers' behavioral differences. Using a unique dataset from one of the largest global e-commerce platforms, we show that the inclusion of shopping behavioral data, besides conventional payment records, requires a deep learning approach to extract the information content of these data, which turns out significantly enhancing forecasting performance than the traditional machine learning methods.

49 pages, 11 tables, 7 figures