Social contact processes and the partner model

Abstract

We consider a stochastic model of infection spread on the complete graph on $N$ vertices incorporating dynamic partnerships, which we assume to be monogamous. This can be seen as a variation on the contact process in which some form of edge dynamics determines the set of contacts at each moment in time. We identify a basic reproduction number $R_0$ with the property that if $R_0<1$ the infection dies out by time $O(\log N)$, while if $R_0>1$ the infection survives for an amount of time $e^{γN}$ for some $γ>0$ and hovers around a uniquely determined metastable proportion of infectious individuals. The proof in both cases relies on comparison to a set of mean-field equations when the infection is widespread, and to a branching process when the infection is sparse.

Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AAP1117 in the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)