Future sensitivity to new physics in B_d, B_s and K mixings

Abstract

We estimate, in a large class of scenarios, the sensitivity to new physics in B_d and B_s mixings achievable with 50 ab-1 of Belle II and 50 fb-1 of LHCb data. We find that current limits on new physics contributions in both B_{d,s} systems can be improved by a factor of ~5 for all values of the CP violating phases, corresponding to over a factor of 2 increase in the scale of new physics probed. Assuming the same suppressions by CKM matrix elements as those of the standard model box diagrams, the scale probed will be about 20 TeV for tree-level new physics contributions, and about 2 TeV for new physics arising at one-loop. We also explore the future sensitivity to new physics in K mixing. Implications for generic new physics and for various specific scenarios, such as minimal flavor violation, light third-generation dominated flavor violation, or U(2) flavor models are studied.

12 pages; discussion of MFV extended; a fit for a hypothetical future new physics signal is added for illustration; first plot in figure 5 corrected; v3 is (essentially) identical to the published article