Proof of the Dubrovin conjecture and analysis of the tritronquée solutions of $P_I$

Abstract

We show that the tritronquée solution of the Painlevé equation $\P1$, $ y"=6y^2+z$ which is analytic for large $z$ with $ \arg z \in (-\frac{3π}{5}, π)$ is pole-free in a region containing the full sector ${z \ne 0, \arg z \in [-\frac{3π}{5}, π]}$ and the disk ${z: |z| < 37/20}$. This proves in particular the Dubrovin conjecture, an open problem in the theory of Painlevé transcendents. The method, building on a technique developed in Costin, Huang, Schlag (2012), is general and constructive. As a byproduct, we obtain the value of the tritronquée and its derivative at zero within less than 1/100 rigorous error bounds.